Dr. Sylvia Dee, Postdoctoral Fellow, Institute for Geophysics, UT – Austin will make a special presentation Friday, March 23, noon, Room 123 KWGL
Title: “Past is Prologue: Constraining Atmospheric Variability using Paleoclimate Data & Climate Models”
Our understanding of ocean and atmospheric dynamics under continued anthropogenic forcing rests on two major pillars: general circulation models (GCMs) and instrumental climate data. However, observations of 20th century climate (e.g. from weather stations or satellites) are too short (back to 1900) to fully characterize decadal and centennial variability in the climate system. To augment the relatively brief instrumental record, high-resolution paleoclimate data record the pulse of the planet over timescales for which we have no direct records, provide a means for investigating extremes in past climates as an analog for future conditions, and help constrain statistics for climate variability. Future projections of water stress will depend crucially on such improved estimates of variability on longer (decadal to centennial) timescales, which archives of past climate can provide.
This talk describes novel strategies for improved predictions of climate system behavior by combining data from models, instrumental data, and high-resolution paleoclimate archives. These new methods are applied to key questions concerning anthropogenic impacts to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and past and future extremes in hydroclimate variability.