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Current Research in EEPS: Dr. Clara Deser, NCAR

April 21 @ 4:00 pm - 5:00 pm CDT

Current Research in EEPS: Dr. Clara Deser, NCAR

 

Projected Changes in Unforced Modes of Atmospheric Circulation Variability over the North Pacific in a Coupled Model Large Ensemble

 

While much attention has been given to understanding how anthropogenic radiative forcing influences the mean state of the climate system, far less scrutiny has been paid to how it may modulate naturally occurring modes of variability. In this study, we investigate forced changes to unforced modes of wintertime atmospheric circulation variability and associated impacts on precipitation over the North Pacific and adjacent regions based on the 40-member CESM1 Large Ensemble during 1920-2100. Each simulation is subject to the same radiative forcing protocol but starts from a slightly different initial condition, leading to different sequences of internal variability. Evolving forced changes in the amplitude and spatial character of the leading internal modes of 500 hPa geopotential height variability are determined by applying Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis across the ensemble dimension at each time step. The results show that the leading modes of internal variability intensify and expand their region of influence in response to anthropogenic forcing, with concomitant impacts on precipitation. Linkages between the Pacific and Atlantic, and between the tropics and extra-tropics, are also enhanced in the future. These projected changes are driven partly by teleconnections from amplified ENSO activity and partly by dynamical processes intrinsic to the extra-tropical atmosphere. The marked influence of anthropogenic forcing on the characteristics of internal extratropical atmospheric circulation variability presents fundamental societal challenges to future water resource planning, flood control, and drought mitigation.

Details

Date:
April 21
Time:
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm CDT
Event Categories:
,

Venue

Dept. Earth Science, Rice University, 6100 Main Street
Houston, TX 77005 United States
Phone:
7133484880

Details

Date:
April 21
Time:
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm CDT
Event Categories:
,

Venue

Dept. Earth Science, Rice University, 6100 Main Street
Houston, TX 77005 United States
Phone:
7133484880

For outside visitors, the best way to get to our department is to come in on Rice Blvd and turn left into entrance 20 (intersection of Rice and Kent St.). At the stop sign, you will see a visitor parking lot on your right.  From there, walk east to the department.  The google map below shows exactly where our building is.